Archive for 07:45 PM

Losing Nicaragua 


07:45 PM

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Jaime Daremblum 


The Sandinistas are slowly crushing democracy.

With U.S. policymakers distracted by the situation in Honduras, Nicaragua continues to move toward authoritarianism. On October 19, a Nicaraguan Supreme Court panel overturned a constitutional provision limiting presidents to two non-consecutive terms in office. The ruling will allow incumbent Nicaraguan president Daniel Ortega–the Sandinista party leader, former Soviet client, vociferous critic of the United States, and current Hugo Chávez acolyte–to run for another term in 2011.

If there were any doubts that Nicaraguan democracy is slowly being extinguished, this latest development should remove them. The Nicaraguan Supreme Court is composed of 16 members. Thanks to a political deal made by Ortega and Arnoldo Alemán, a former Nicaraguan president who went to jail for massive corruption, half the magistrates are appointed by the ruling Sandinistas, and the other half are appointed by the opposition Liberals. But due to the May 2009 death of one Liberal-appointed magistrate, and the fact that his seat still has not been filled, the Sandinistas currently enjoy an 8-7 majority, which means the court is effectively a Sandinista rubber-stamp.

Six magistrates made the decision to let Ortega seek reelection. And guess what? All six were Sandinista appointees–even though the court’s six-member constitutional panel includes three Liberal magistrates. Those three Liberal judges were not summoned to the meeting at which the decision was made. Instead, the Sandinistas called in three “replacement” judges to guarantee their preferred ruling.

The Supreme Court’s action represents a gross Sandinista power grab. It makes a mockery of Nicaraguan democracy. It is the kind of thing we expect from tin-pot dictatorships.

Unfortunately for the Nicaraguan people, the anti-Sandinista opposition parties are tainted by corruption and prone to infighting. Indeed, in its latest Corruption Perceptions Index, Transparency International ranks Nicaragua as the most corrupt country in Central America. Ortega has skillfully manipulated and divided opposition figures, just as the dictatorial Somoza regime (which ruled Nicaragua from 1936 to 1979) once did. The lack of a united opposition has made it easier for Ortega and his cronies to trample the democratic process.

In November 2008, the Sandinistas committed widespread fraud to rig municipal elections, leading to a suspension of U.S. and European aid. This was a particularly egregious example of Ortega’s broader attempt to weaken or obliterate the checks on Sandinista authority. His party has embraced the thuggish mob tactics used by Chávez (and, prior to his arrest, by former Honduran president Manuel Zelaya). Just ask Robert Callahan, the U.S. ambassador in Managua. After Callahan criticized the pro-Ortega Supreme Court ruling as “improper,” Sandinista followers vandalized the U.S. embassy. “A day later,” the New York Times reports, “Ortega supporters surrounded Mr. Callahan at a university fair, forcing him to dash to his sport utility vehicle in a hasty getaway that was televised locally.”

Despite being freely elected in 2006, Ortega never accepted the principles of democracy. During his previous stint as president of Nicaragua–following the 1979 Sandinista revolution, which toppled the Somoza dictatorship–he governed as a leftist autocrat and received aid from the Soviet Union. After losing a free election in 1990, Ortega worked to consolidate his influence over the Sandinista party. In 1999, he made a sinister pact with Alemán, one of the most corrupt leaders in recent Latin American history, who was then serving as Nicaraguan president.

The Ortega-Alemán pact established a power-sharing arrangement between the Sandinistas and the center-right Liberals. It was designed to let the two parties dominate Nicaragua’s key political institutions–and to shield both Ortega and Alemán from possible legal troubles. Unfortunately for Alemán, it was not enough to save him from receiving a 20-year prison sentence in December 2003 (nearly two years after he left office). This past January, however, the Nicaraguan Supreme Court cleared Alemán of all charges and released him from jail. “In exchange for his freedom,” Time magazine reported, “Alemán returned the favor by essentially forgiving the Sandinistas last November’s electoral theft by providing the congressional votes needed to give Ortega control over the National Assembly, which had been considered the ‘last democratic holdout.’”

Ortega’s own 2006 election was made possible by his 1999 deal with Alemán, which led to constitutional reforms that lowered the popular-vote threshold needed to win presidential contests. In 2006, Liberal supporters were divided between José Rizo (the candidate of the Liberal Constitutional Party) and Eduardo Montealegre (the candidate of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance). Together, Rizo and Montealegre received a majority of the popular vote. But Ortega received 38 percent, which was enough to make him president.

As the poorest country in Central America, Nicaragua may seem insignificant to U.S. interests. Yet Hugo Chávez views Nicaragua as a crucial member of his anti-American bloc. As long as Ortega and the Sandinistas control Nicaragua, Chávez will have at least one ally in Central America. So will Russia and Iran, both of which have warm relations with the Ortega regime. Indeed, Nicaragua has even honored Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad with two of its most prestigious awards (the Liberty Medal and the Rubén Darío Medal).

There is no question that Ortega is trying to secure an authoritarian grip on his country. In the 1980s, the U.S. government spent huge amounts of money and adopted controversial policies to support the cause of Nicaraguan democracy. Today, supporting that cause would require much less from the United States. But the Obama administration must first make Nicaragua a priority. Thus far, it has not.

Jaime Daremblum, who served as Costa Rica’s ambassador to the United States from 1998 to 2004, is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute.

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Why U.S. changed its position

06:13 PM

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Carlos Alberto Montaner

Hondurans are anxious to know what will happen in their country after the Nov. 29 elections. Consequently, a very alert segment of civil society, almost all of them dynamic young people, supported by the magazine Strategy and Business, organized an international seminar on Nov. 12 to examine in depth this bedeviled affair. I participated in the event, but, on my own, because I wanted to satisfy a different curiosity. I’ll explain that later.

Guatemalan Julio Ligorría, an expert in crisis-solving, was asked for an analysis of how and why the international perception of the government of President Roberto Micheletti had been so negative, even though Manuel Zelaya’s removal had resulted from the application of a national law. Ligorría was also asked what could be done to straighten out the mess.

Peruvian Alvaro Vargas Llosa, the author of a couple of essential books on how to emerge from underdevelopment, was asked for a futuristic vision of what it would take for Honduras to stop being the third most stubbornly poor country in Latin America, a country where 73 percent of the population survives precariously within the boundaries of poverty.

From me, they expected a prediction on what would be a violent response from the Castro-Chávez bloc to the legitimate government that will emerge from the ballot boxes, to which I added an uncomfortable final warning: This may be the last opportunity for Honduras to save individual freedoms and the republican structure.

If the Honduran people don’t see in democracy and pluralism a solution to the interests of the huge majority, it is probable that on the next opportunity they will be wooed by the siren song of some demagogue of the “Bolivarian” ilk, dripping Venezuelan petrodollars.

Moreover, aside from my disagreeable task as Cassandra, I wanted to find out why the United States had made a 180-degree turn during the Honduran crisis and — after asking for the immediate restitution of former President Zelaya — had proceeded on Oct. 30 to support any decision the Honduran Congress and Supreme Court might make, which inevitably meant that the ousted president would not again occupy Government House.

There are five reasons for this radical change:

• The State Department ascertained that institutional support in Honduras for the removal and arrest of Zelaya was practically unanimous and remained firm, despite the sanctions and the cancellation of visas. The legislative and judicial branches, the churches, the army and, according to polls, 80 percent of the population preferred to see Zelaya away from power.

• The report from the legal department of the Library of Congress about Zelaya’s removal, requested by a legislator, left no margin for doubt: Zelaya had been separated from his post and replaced by Micheletti in accordance with Honduran legislation. To expel him from the country surely was illegal (perhaps they might have put him in jail) but to demand his restitution was tantamount to asking Hondurans to break the law.

• The new government of Honduras had skillfully transferred the debate to the bosom of U.S. society through Republican representatives and senators, and the Obama administration was paying a political price at home for maintaining an antidemocratic stance that was contrary to the interests and values of the American people.

• Circulating through the State Department were two pages compiled by U.S. intelligence that listed the purported crimes and complicities of Zelaya’s most intimate entourage with drug trafficking and corruption. It made no sense for Washington to join that side while it maintained in Honduras the Palmerola military base, which presumably was dedicated to watching and combatting activities akin to those of the relatives and friends of its controversial protégé.

• Nor did it make sense to give artificial life-support to a regime that openly militated in the camp of Hugo Chávez, a political family allied with Iran. By associating with Iran and supporting Teheran in its development of nuclear weapons, Chávez, who until recently was classified as a colorful nuisance, became a dangerous enemy.

This lucid analysis also explains the support given to the Micheletti government by the Liberal International and its president, the prestigious Dutch Eurodeputy Hans Van Baalen, as well as the deployment of observers to the next elections by several institutions in the democratic world. What’s probable, then, is that the next president of Honduras will soon repair his country’s international relations. Let’s hope so.

Firmas Press

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How Cohabitation Is a Sin Against Social Justice

06:51 PM

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Jennifer Roback Morse, Ph.D.

As everyone knows, marriage is an outdated, fossilized, oppressive institution that is constantly changing under our feet, evolving into a freer and higher and better form. And if it isn’t morphing into one of its alternatives, we would be better off without it.

As everyone doesn’t know, social science can now show that the “alternatives to marriage” don’t work. A recent news story brought this home in a particularly vivid fashion for that most fashionable of alternatives to marriage: cohabitation.

In Dallas, a mother and her boyfriend were arrested after three of her children were found in a hotel room, starved and abused. The facts of the case fit in with the general pattern of knowledge about the hazards of cohabitation. This story puts a human face on the statistics.

First, we know that a cohabiting boyfriend is the person most likely to abuse a child. From British child-abuse registries, we learn that a child living with his or her mother and a live-in boyfriend is 33 times more likely to be abused than a child living with his or her biological married parents. From a study of inflicted injury deaths in Missouri, we learn that children living in households with unrelated adults were 50 times more likely to die of inflicted injuries than households with both biological parents present. In 82% of the cases, the “unrelated adult” was the mother’s cohabiting boyfriend.

So it was in this case. The boyfriend was the perpetrator. While the mother was out working, he sexually abused her daughter. And although the mother was certainly complicit in locking the kids in the bathroom, the boyfriend was the one beating them.

Speaking of her working, this boyfriend stayed “home” in the hotel room, while the woman went out to work each day. This, too, fits the statistical pattern. Cohabiting men have half the income of married men and work fewer hours.

Each one of the four children had different fathers. The boyfriend’s child, needless to say, was not locked in the bathroom with the other kids. This case illustrates the new phenomenon that demographers have identified. They call it “multiple-partner fertility.” One of the problems associated with multiple-partner fertility is the relationship of each new boyfriend to the children of the previous boyfriends. To not put too fine a point on it: He is interested in the woman, not in her children from past relationships. The children are leftovers from a previous relationship.

You may object that some of these problems are associated with poverty. And that is partly true. But the deeper truth is that channeling sexual behavior and childbearing into marriage creates wealth rather than dissipates it. Men behave differently when they marry, especially when they become married fathers.

When I give campus talks on the risks of cohabitation, I can always count on some smarty to challenge me saying that the risks are not really so great to people like himself. What he usually means (and it is almost always a “he”) is that the statistics are skewed by a large number of poor, uneducated cohabiting couples who are at higher risk for all sorts of problems anyway. Unspoken, but implied, is that he is cohabiting himself and plans not to change based on anything I say.

So, he might argue, this particular boyfriend was just a loser, while the cohabiting men of his own social circle are not. Women of higher income and education will not face such serious problems as this woman living in a hotel room with a creep. But studies that control for education and income still find that cohabitation is risky.

We have created a culture that says sex, marriage and childbearing have no necessary relationship to each other. This culture, like any culture, is made up of the decisions of all of us: the things we choose to do and not do, the justifications we offer for our actions, the things we celebrate and the things we condemn. We have an indirect impact on the culture and therefore on the people around us. Every problem of the poor is exacerbated by the failure of marriage. The “alternatives to marriage” are destroying the culture of the poor.

So I present this challenge to my young friends on campus: “You might get away with participating in social practices that become much more destructive as they trickle down into the lower classes. It is not social justice to claim for yourself the rights to behaviors that you can manage but are a disaster for the less fortunate. Do you want to be part of the solution or part of the problem?”

Published by NCRegister.com.

Dr. Morse is the Founder and President of the Ruth Institute, a nonprofit educational organization devoted to bringing hope and encouragement for lifelong married love.

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Democracy Wins in Honduras

09:35 PM

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Jaime Daremblum

The Obama administration deserves credit for changing its position.

The four-month Honduran political crisis appears to be over. Last week, Honduran officials signed an agreement to establish a provisional “unity” government and allow the Honduran Congress to determine the fate of Manuel Zelaya, who was removed as president in late June for constitutional violations. At first, some media outlets reported that the deal would automatically restore Zelaya as president, but that was inaccurate. Zelaya could be restored–but Honduran legislators will make the final call. The United States, which helped broker the accord, agreed to end sanctions against Honduras and recognize the legitimacy of its November 29 elections.

This represents a major triumph for Honduran democracy. The Obama administration had previously argued that the termination of U.S. sanctions and the acceptance of this month’s Honduran elections were both contingent on Zelaya’s reinstatement as president. At some point, the administration decided that Honduras should be permitted to make its own decision about the Hugo Chávez acolyte. If the Obama administration still believed that Zelaya’s removal was an illegal “military coup” and an assault on democracy, it would not have endorsed an agreement that lets the Honduran Congress reject Zelaya’s return to the presidency.

Zelaya, not surprisingly, is confused. He thought, understandably enough, that the U.S. government had taken his side. After the agreement was announced, he wrote a letter to the State Department demanding to know “if the position condemning the coup d’etat has been changed or modified.” In all likelihood, the Honduran Congress will not reinstall him as president. An adviser to Roberto Micheletti, who became interim Honduran president after Zelaya’s ouster, told Bloomberg News that “Zelaya won’t be restored–I don’t think so.” But the agreement has nonetheless boosted Honduras’s diplomatic standing. “Just by signing this agreement,” the Micheletti adviser told Bloomberg, “we already have the recognition of the international community for the elections.”

Implementation of the agreement will be monitored by a “verification commission,” whose members will include U.S. labor secretary Hilda Solis and former Chilean president Ricardo Lagos. Again, it is important to remember that nothing in the agreement stipulates Zelaya’s return as president. Honduran lawmakers will decide that issue themselves. They will base their decision partly on the opinion of the Honduran Supreme Court, which ordered the military to arrest Zelaya back in June. Even if Zelaya is restored, his term will end in January. A new president will be elected by the Honduran people on November 29 and inaugurated on January 27.

The Obama administration may have been persuaded to change its position on Honduras by a Law Library of Congress study that analyzed the legal circumstances of Zelaya’s ouster. The study concluded that “the judicial and legislative branches applied constitutional and statutory law in the case against President Zelaya in a manner that was judged by the Honduran authorities from both branches of the government to be in accordance with the Honduran legal system.” The study also found that Zelaya’s exile to Costa Rica was unconstitutional, but that has no bearing on his legal entitlement to return as president.

The administration deserves credit for its reversal on Honduras, though it should have changed course much sooner. There was no “coup” in Honduras; rather, the country’s democratic institutions exercised their legal authority to remove a president who had trampled the constitution and used thuggish mob tactics as part of a blatant power grab. U.S. sanctions against Honduras were never justified, nor did Honduras deserve to be suspended from the Organization of American States. Zelaya should not have been deported, but his removal from office was constitutional. Honduras never ceased being a civilian-led democracy. From the first minute it took office, the Micheletti government had constitutional legitimacy, despite being labeled as a “coup regime” by uninformed or ideologically biased critics.

Generally speaking, the U.S. media does not seem to appreciate the significance of what Honduras has achieved. To review: A Chávez crony launched an illegal attack on democracy, and his opponents used constitutional mechanisms to thwart his efforts. Honduran democracy survived. Authoritarian tactics were defeated. Free elections will soon be held. The country won’t be transformed into another Venezuela.

All of this is worth celebrating.

Jaime Daremblum, who served as Costa Rica’s ambassador to the United States from 1998 to 2004, is director of the Center for Latin American Studies at the Hudson Institute.

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IPEA University

05:55 AM

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IPEA University


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Welcome to IPEA

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Eduardo Verástegui

Welcome to IPEA

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